Can Nicolas Kuhn be the long-awaited heir to Jota’s throne? <i>(Image: NQ)</i>
Can Nicolas Kuhn be the long-awaited heir to Jota’s throne? (Image: NQ)
Disclaimer: This article was written BEFORE the Slovan Bratislava game.
There is a paradox forming in my mind that the more sophisticated football metrics become, the more abstract and difficult to reconcile with the traditional “eye test”.
It is paradoxical because as data becomes more available, it should become more intuitive and easier to consume for the layperson. Rarely has there been a disparity between, let’s call it “the in-stadium eye test” and performance data than on Saturday as Celtic defeated Heart of Midlothian 2-0.
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Arne Engels
New signing Arne Engels was voted the sponsor’s ‘Man of the Match’. There is no doubt the record signing had some promising moments – none more so than stepping up to stroke home the game-breaking penalty confidently. He also gave glimpses of the athletic box-to-box midfielder Celtic has craved for some time, including your author!
Yet on StatsBomb his overall on-ball value (OBV) metric was -0.40. for novices to this composite metric, that’s like really bad! Only dear ol’ Craig Gordon’s was lower at -0.46 across all players who participated. To support that, my packing statistics also represent many of the key attributes in the game. Engels’ overall packing score was nine. For context, the highest in the team was Greg Taylor on 84. The next lowest of the starting players was goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel with 17. Last season, Matt O’Riley’s average was 97.97. So, nine is demonstrably bad.
According to StatsBomb, Engels’ OBV was negative across passing, dribbling and carrying, and shooting, with defensive actions being the only positive. His low packing score was driven mainly by five packing turnovers. This is where you give the ball away or lose possession and as a result your teammates are out of the game. It scores negatively depending on how many teammates are thus abandoned on the wrong side of the ball. Also, he completed only four pack passes. He was not alone in this. Heart of Midlothian successfully restricted space in the middle of the pitch. Reo Hatate only completed one.
Yet, he was the Man of the Match. Probably due to some ‘new shiny thing’ sentiment, and the magic dust of the penalty. I am slowly meandering to the thrust of today’s piece!
Nicolas Kuhn
According to StatsBomb, the top Celt was Nicolas Kuhn. His overall OBV was 1.23 and he scored positively across the four outfield OBV metrics. If you unpick that, he provided five passes that resulted in a chance being created from the next pass (secondary assisting passes) and laid on four direct assisting passes. Both were the highest in the game. His xA was 0.53. He had the highest overall attacking threat score with ten – the next highest was Alistair Johnston with seven.
My in-game ‘perception’ was of wastefulness, hence why studying the match with the emotion dialled down is important. So, by the data, whether mine or StatsBomb’s, Kuhn would have been Man of the Match. It probably matters not to most, but it is an interesting perspective and one I am sure the coaches can differentiate.
Jota
As I finally navigate to today’s point. It was interesting that as Kuhn’s goal threat (two shots, one blocked on the line) drew criticism that he wanders into the box and doesn’t shoot quickly enough, his creativity rose to season highs.
He scored in the first three matches of the season and hasn’t done in the next three. His shot count has dropped from ten in the first three matches to four in the next three. His xG fell from 2.15 to 0.41, but his xA has risen from 0.35 total to 1.06 in the last three matches.
The question that occurred to me was “Could we see Kuhn replacing Jota as the volume guy?”. What does that mean?
I would characterise Jota as a volume monster. He is unlike, say, James Forrest or Kyogo Furuhashi, who are stylistically economical. Chance creation and shot volume are more about quality than quantity. Whereas with Jota, you got a lot of everything. Yes, there were some wild shots and rudderless crosses, but there was also a high volume of quality delivery and goal threat.
There is utility to this. You balance the wastage that allows the opposition to reset and waste time from restarts, with, basically, keeping them on their toes – “what is going to happen next?”. Here is the comparison between Jota’s season two and Kuhn this season with the usual small sample warning.
Both have negative shot OBVs – StatsBomb’s model hates a long ranger. Kuhn is turning the ball over more, but otherwise, the profiles are very similar at this early stage.
Kuhn’s pressing is to a higher volume but that may be team styles rather than individual ability. There is no doubt Kuhn is quicker than Jota and we may see the benefit of that at the Champions League level – we did against Slovan Bratislava for Kyogo’s goal. Kuhn is also a box hogger and enters the opposition area more frequently than the Portuguese. Their passing and assisting xA are very similar and so far, Kuhn’s xG is higher.
At this stage, it is about the direction of travel. What is important if you have a player like Daizen Maeda on one wing is that on the other there is a bit of magic and the unexpected. Maeda is highly predictable in a good way in terms of what he can do and what he can’t do.
Jota was a perfect foil for him, and there are early signs Kuhn can also be that counterfoil. With Kuhn, we need to see these performances and numbers posted over a longer period.
Celtic FC
Ange Postecoglou
Brendan Rodgers
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